UFC 106 PPV Estimates = Not Good
Dave Meltzer over at f4wonline.com got a hold of the early estimates for UFC 104 and 106 PPV buys and the news on 106 is not good for the UFC.
The first week cable estimate on UFC 106 was 330,000, which is even lower than earliest projections we had. UFC 104 with Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Shogun Rua came in at 450,000 in a cable estimate and 460,000 in a trending estimate. Keep in mind the general rule of thumb by nature of how numbers are reported in the U.S. is that the final number since most UFC buys are in the U.S. will wind up 10-15% above these original numbers, so it’s likely Machida-Rua ends up at 500,000, which isn’t bad, and UFC 106 winds up 360,000 to 375,000, which for that fight is a gigantic disappointment. Trending numbers right now are indicating about a 27% drop from 104. The top per capita markets were Burlington, VT, Las Vegas, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto, Honolulu, Oklahoma City, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Antonio and Phoenix.
Obviously the over-achievement of UFC 104 was good news for Zuffa and would provide good if not better numbers in the rematch of Shogun and Machida. The real issue the UFC faced though was with the numbers from UFC 106 which were dubbed a “gigantic disappointment” by Dave Meltzer.
You don’t have to look very far to see why fans chose not to purchase this UFC event in the numbers the UFC usually sees. The first big problem the UFC ran into was Brock Lesnar pulling out of his title fight with Carwin which caused ticket prices to be de-valued and even lead to 37% of the events tickets being comped. You also have to look at the fight that became main event. You have on one side of the cage a man who had not fought in well over a year and spent a fair portion of that time being ripped to pieces by Dana White. On the other side of the cage stood Forrest Griffin who was destroyed in his last fight to the point where he ran from the cage to get away.
The way the economy stands now the UFC can’t afford to be putting out these sub-standard cards. I understand that some of the UFC’s “stars” are having issues with injuries and sickness but they have to find a way to develop more talent otherwise PPV buys will continue to drop.
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